Blue hydrogen market seen jumping to 7.89 million tons by 2031

Mordor Intelligence projects the global blue hydrogen market will surge from 0.81 million tons in 2026 to 7.89 million tons by 2031, driven by carbon capture, blue ammonia trade and policy support in the US and Europe. Asia-Pacific is emerging as a key growth center as Japan, South Korea and China build import, storage and processing infrastructure.

Why it matters: - Blue hydrogen is moving from niche industrial use toward a larger role in ammonia, refining and chemicals. - The market forecast points to fast growth in low-carbon hydrogen supply chains, especially across Asia-Pacific. - Policy support and carbon capture infrastructure are shaping where projects get built and whether they can compete on cost.

What happened: - Mordor Intelligence projected the global blue hydrogen market will rise from 0.81 million tons in 2026 to 7.89 million tons by 2031. - The forecast implies a 57.64% compound annual growth rate from 2026 through 2031. - The report identified Asia-Pacific as a leading growth region, supported by blue ammonia supply agreements with Japan and South Korea. - The report said investment in autothermal reforming plants with carbon capture is being encouraged by the US IRA 45V tax credit and EU regulations. - Shared carbon capture and storage infrastructure in the US Gulf Coast, North Sea and Alberta is helping lower project costs. - Mordor Intelligence also released the report in Japanese, French, German, Spanish and Portuguese. - The report is available here: More information

The details: - Saudi Arabia’s blue ammonia exports to Japan have highlighted ammonia as a carrier for moving hydrogen long distances. - South Korea is investing in ammonia-cracking infrastructure to support regional supply chains. - Japan and South Korea are using these trade routes to access lower-carbon hydrogen while easing domestic renewable power constraints. - Chemical manufacturers are using blue hydrogen as a lower-carbon feedstock for ammonia and methanol. - Fertilizer makers and marine fuel producers are also drawing interest as emissions rules tighten. - Carbon capture incentives and demand for certified low-carbon products are encouraging long-term supply agreements. - Carbon capture adds energy demand to hydrogen production, which increases feedstock use and operating costs. - Autothermal reforming can improve efficiency, but it requires additional oxygen supply infrastructure that raises project expenses. - High natural gas prices in Europe are affecting production economics. - Hydrogen pyrolysis remains early-stage and has not yet changed the competitive picture. - These cost and efficiency constraints may limit blue hydrogen use in power generation where efficiency matters most. - The report segments the market by technology, end-user industry and geography. - Technology segments include steam methane reforming plus CCS, autothermal reforming plus CCS, gas partial oxidation plus CCS, natural gas pyrolysis or NGD, and integrated SMR-ATR hybrid systems. - End users include refining, chemicals, iron and steel, transportation, and other industries such as cement, glass and food. - Geographic coverage includes Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe, South America, and the Middle East and Africa. - Asia-Pacific is becoming a major center for blue hydrogen production and trade, backed by hydrogen facilities, carbon capture infrastructure and ammonia imports. - China is expanding production capacity and carbon storage projects. - Japan and South Korea are developing import terminals to support hydrogen supply chains. - India is exploring blue hydrogen production, but wider adoption depends on policy support and carbon pricing. - Europe is supporting adoption through low-carbon fuel policies and industrial cluster investment, but high gas prices and carbon storage regulations remain obstacles. - The United Kingdom is building hydrogen supply networks, while Germany and other countries are moving ahead with selected projects. - Saudi Arabia and Brazil are pursuing export opportunities, with Northeast Asia emerging as a likely destination. - Jayveer V, senior research manager at Mordor Intelligence, said the sector’s opportunities are being shaped by investments in carbon capture, low-carbon hydrogen production and industrial applications. - Jayveer V also said decision-makers need research backed by reliable data, consistent validation and balanced industry assessment. - Mordor Intelligence said its methodology is structured to track market developments, competitive strategies and growth drivers. - The company listed Air Liquide, Air Products and Chemicals, ATCO, BP, CertifHy Consortium, Cummins, Equinor, Exxon Mobil, Johnson Matthey, Linde, Plug Power, Reliance Industries, SABIC, Saudi Aramco, Shell, Siemens Energy, Suncor, Technip Energies, Topsoe, TotalEnergies, Uniper and Xebec Adsorption among companies in the market.

Between the lines: - The forecast is less about fuel switching in the near term and more about industrial decarbonization where hydrogen already has a use case. - Blue hydrogen’s economics still depend heavily on carbon capture costs, gas prices and access to storage infrastructure. - Asia-Pacific’s lead reflects trade logistics and ammonia demand as much as domestic hydrogen production. - The report suggests blue hydrogen may gain traction first where governments can align tax credits, emissions policy and infrastructure buildout.

What's next: - Blue Point One in Louisiana is expected to become a major North American reference project. - CF Industries, JERA and Mitsui broke ground on the roughly $3.7 billion project in August 2026. - The plant will use autothermal reforming to make hydrogen for low-carbon ammonia production. - Captured CO₂ from the project will be transported for permanent storage. - The facility is expected to produce 1.4 million metric tons of ammonia annually and start operations in 2029. - In March 2025, Aramco completed the purchase of a 50% stake in Blue Hydrogen Industrial Gases Company, a joint venture with Air Products Qudra in Jubail, Saudi Arabia. - The Jubail venture aims to make lower-carbon hydrogen from natural gas with carbon capture and storage. - The project is intended to support hydrogen supply to refining, chemical and petrochemical industries.

The bottom line: - Blue hydrogen is gaining momentum where carbon capture, ammonia trade and industrial demand overlap, but its growth still hinges on cost, infrastructure and policy support.