China Marriages Drop 9.8 Percent, Fueling Fears of Births Collapse

(MENAFN) China’s marriage registrations tumbled 9.8% over the first nine months of 2026, a steep drop that sharpens fears of another slide in births as the world’s second-largest economy grapples with a worsening demographic crisis.

Couples registered 4.648 million marriages from January through September, 504,000 fewer than in the same period last year, according to Ministry of Civil Affairs figures published Wednesday. A Hong Kong-based English-language daily reported the data Thursday.

The slump threatens to erase the short-lived uptick in marriages seen in 2025.

He Yafu, an independent demographer based in Guangdong province, said the numbers point to another annual decline in registrations for 2026 as a whole.

The implications for the birth rate are stark. Because childbearing in China remains closely tied to marriage, fewer weddings this year could mean fewer babies in 2027.

The baseline is already bleak. Births plunged 17% in 2025 to 7.92 million, from 9.54 million a year earlier, National Bureau of Statistics figures show. The birth rate dropped to 5.63 per 1,000 people, the lowest since the People’s Republic was founded in 1949.

China’s population shrank by 3.39 million in 2025 to roughly 1.405 billion, its fourth straight year of decline.

Beijing has rolled out childcare subsidies, broader preschool support and other incentives to encourage marriage and parenthood. Mounting living costs and shifting attitudes toward starting a family continue to undercut those efforts.

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